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The DEFCON-D framework tracks 9 objective economic factors that historically preceded major dollar devaluations (1933, 1971). Below is a complete list of our data sources:
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Update Frequency: Quarterly
Threshold: >130% (active when exceeded)
Source: U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement, Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
Update Frequency: Monthly
Threshold: >15% (active when exceeded)
Source: Polygon.io real-time market data (ticker: C:XAUUSD)
Update Frequency: Real-time (cached for 1 minute)
Threshold: >$2,500/oz (active when exceeded)
Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 Statistical Release
Update Frequency: Weekly (Thursdays)
Threshold: >$8 trillion (active when exceeded)
Source: World Gold Council, IMF International Financial Statistics
Update Frequency: Quarterly
Threshold: >500 metric tons/year (active when exceeded)
Source: IMF Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER)
Update Frequency: Quarterly
Threshold: <60% (active when below threshold)
Source: U.S. Treasury Auction Results, TreasuryDirect
Update Frequency: Per auction (weekly)
Threshold: Bid-to-cover ratio <2.0 (active when below)
Source: Federal Reserve, Polygon.io (ticker: I:DXY)
Update Frequency: Real-time (cached for 1 minute)
Threshold: <95 (active when below threshold)
Source: Official BRICS announcements, Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times
Update Frequency: Event-driven (manual review)
Threshold: Active pilot or implementation announced
Not all factors update in real-time. Some metrics (Debt-to-GDP, Central Bank Gold Purchases, Dollar Reserve Share) are reported quarterly and may reflect data from 1-3 months prior. The DEFCON-D level reflects the most recent available data for each factor.
The DEFCON-D framework is a factor-counting system, not a probability model or risk score. It measures how many of the 9 historical warning signs are currently active.
This is not a prediction. A CRITICAL reading does not mean a dollar reset is imminent or inevitable. It means that 8 or 9 of the conditions that preceded the 1933 and 1971 devaluations are currently present. Historical patterns inform analysis but do not guarantee outcomes.
The DEFCON-D framework is an educational tool for tracking economic conditions. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. We are not licensed financial advisors, and nothing on this site should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
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